To address the challenges faced by the social protection system, the National Medium-Term Development Plan 2020 – 2024 (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional/RPJMN) proposes five key policy directions for social protection in Indonesia. The first policy direction focuses on strengthening the implementation of social protection.

The Social Security Roadmap for 2023 – 2024 has been developed to build a systematic, targeted, and sustainable National Social Security System (Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional/SJSN) in the health and labour sectors, in line with the RPJMN policy direction. This Roadmap aims to provide guidance in the planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation, and control for: a) Social Security Organizing Agency (Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial/BPJS) in the administration of SJSN; and b) Ministries/Agencies (K/L), Regional Governments, and Stakeholders in supporting and facilitating the implementation of SJSN by BPJS, in accordance with their respective authorities based on the prevailing laws and regulations. In its development, this Roadmap refers to three key documents: 1) the National Long-Term Development Plan (Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Panjang/RPJP) 2005 – 2025; 2) the RPJMN 2020 – 2024; and 3) the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030.

Social protection programs have contributed to poverty reduction in Indonesia, but there are still several challenges that need to be addressed. These challenges include: the pandemic-related barriers that have reduced participation in the National Health Insurance (Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional/JKN) and Employment Social Security (Jaminan Sosial Ketenagakerjaan/Jamsosnaker) programs; unequal access to health services and the participant registration process for JKN; inadequate institutional governance affecting service quality and coordination among social security management bodies; limited public understanding of the objectives of Jamsosnaker; and disparities in benefits and access between formal and informal workers, where informal workers receive less support in unemployment and pension programs.

National Development Planning Agency (Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/BAPPENAS) plays a role in providing a comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of the Roadmap, particularly in assessing its alignment with the RPJMN 2020 – 2024. This alignment evaluation is necessary to assess the existence of social security programs, including JKN and Jamsosnaker, within the broader social protection system framework, including social assistance initiatives such as premium assistance recipient (Penerima Bantuan Iuran/PBI). The evaluation question is how the effectiveness of the Social Security Roadmap 2023 – 2024 can align with and support the RPJMN 2020 – 2024, particularly in strengthening social protection implementation in Indonesia.

External evaluation is crucial to ensure independence in assessing the effectiveness of Presidential Regulation Number 36 of 2023 on the Social Security Roadmap 2023 – 2024 and the alignment between the two. LPPKM CHEPS FKM UI, in collaboration with BAPPENAS and GIZ-SPP, has been tasked with conducting an independent evaluation to provide a comprehensive assessment of the Roadmap’s performance and its integration with the RPJMN. This study is being conducted from September 2024 to January 2025.

The study aims to evaluate the implementation of the policies outlined in Presidential Regulation No. 36 of 2023 regarding the Social Security Roadmap 2023 – 2024. The main objective of this study is to provide evidence-based policy recommendations to enhance the effectiveness and impact of social security programs in Indonesia. This evaluation focuses on two main aspects: the accuracy of policy mandates at the activity level and alignment with the objectives of the RPJMN.

This study uses a mixed methods approach with a results-oriented framework to analyze compliance of K/L with activities listed in the four strategies of the Roadmap, involving the relevant K/Ls. Data is collected through various methods, including K/L surveys to identify activity status and output indicators, document reviews, Focus Group Discussions, and In-depth Interviews.

To assess the effectiveness of each activity’s implementation, compliance with RPJMN goals, and overall success, the study adopts a variety of analytical methods, including Quantitative Analysis, Qualitative Analysis, and Integrative Analysis. Econometric modelling is also used to evaluate the long-term impact of Roadmap initiatives by utilizing secondary data from SUSENAS and conducting ex-ante evaluations of subsidies directed at Pillar-1 of the social protection system.